Grenfell Tower, predictable surprises and slow violence

This is a post about black elephants: events widely predicted by those in a position to know, but found totally surprising when they actually happen, or elephants in the room retrospectively declared to be black swans. The Grenfell Tower fire was surprising and shocking – and at the same time, predictable. That puts it in a category of things which human institutions seem particularly bad at dealing with, where a problem builds up slowly and almost asymptomatically until suddenly a tipping point is reached, by which time addressing it has become massively more difficult. At one level, the solution to that is obvious – but that doesn’t seem to make it any easier to do in practice.

And it’s perhaps worth saying that this quite abstract way of thinking about disasters is not an attempt to distract from the human tragedy, but on the contrary is a way of recognising and understanding that we need to deal with structural as well as particular issues if we are to see fewer black elephants in future.

Andrew Curry – thenextwave

Reading list for government policy people interested in digital

Paul Maltby asked on Twitter

The collected answers – crowd sourced in short order – make up an impressive list. It’s inevitably a bit uneven, but there is a lot of good stuff there, and it’s well worth dipping in to.

Paul Maltby (assisted by the crowd)

Cars and second order consequences

Predicting the future is hard. Predicting the second and third order consequences of your first prediction is much harder – but it is those consequential effects which really drive the wider social, economic and other impact. This post is about what happens when vehicles are electric and autonomous, and teases out potential changes ranging from reduced tobacco consumption (because in the US most tobacco is bought at petrol stations) to changing patterns of land use.

It’s a characteristically interesting read – but the reason for including it here is less to do with the cars and more to do with its being an example of a way of thinking about the future. It uses a challenging assumption as a starting point – in this case that autonomous vehicles will change cities as much as cars have done. It focuses less on the initial change and more on the ripples that causes. And it recognises that this can only be a way of exploring possible futures, not of predicting a specific one.

Ben Evans

Policy for the future

Good policy comes from good policy making. There is plenty of evidence that good policy making is based not just on the rigorous analysis and evidence assessment which is the best of the traditional approach, but also on effective implementation and deep understanding of the needs and behaviour of those who will be affected by the policy. This post argues for a more broadly based approach to policy making, drawing on The Blunders of Our Governments (which remains compelling reading) to make the case.

The problem with this is not – as the author supposes – that it sounds fanciful – it is that it sounds obvious. The problem is not in recognising that policy were better done differently, it is in the doing of it. The post introduces a more substantial paper which has some useful material, but ends up describing barriers to change without offering much about how to overcome them.

Jake Thorold – RSA

How aligned is your organisation?

A useful diagram with quite a good article wrapped round it. If there is strategic value in organisational alignment, whose responsibility is it for ensuring that that alignment is achieved? Everybody, nobody and the chief executive are all unsatisfactory answers – and the article raises, but doesn’t really attempt to answer, some important questions about how to achieve alignment in a complex organisation under constant pressure to focus on short term issues.

Jonathan Trevor and Barrry Varcoe – Harvard Business Review

The Big Shift in Strategy – Strategies of Trajectory

Echoing some of the same themes as Simon Wardley’s approach, this post argues the need for strategies to be developed with an understanding of movement and direction, rather than position – and to forge strong connection between the long term question, ‘where do we want to be?’ and the short term question, ‘what are the key choices we face now which will determine whether we are on the trajectory to get there?’

John Hagel – Linkedin

Rowers, pirates and rocket ships: How do you respond to disruption?

Strategy is often seen as being about objectives and destinations. But there is no point in wanting to get across an ocean if you don’t have any means of getting there. Disruptive external change demands a response – but the nature of that response depends on where you start from and what means of transport are available, as much as it does on where you think you are trying to get to. Though the advice to set up a pirate camp within sight of the far shore depends on there being usefully positioned islands – and on being able to distinguish the Indies from America.

Catherine Howe – Curious?

Business is not politics

The efficiency and effectiveness of government is often compared – usually unfavourably – to that of business. From time to time business leaders are brought into government to show how it’s done, usually to withdraw some time later without seeming to have had much impact. One reason for that is that leadership in government and in business make different demands – this post does a good (and non-judgemental) job of explaining some of the reasons why.

John Kay

Fending off the death of Amazon

Jeff Bezos has a recipe for success. And since it is a recipe which has brought Amazon to a position of dominance, it is one to be taken seriously. His basic message is to avoid ever reaching day 2  – for him a company is either innovating or dying, and even if the death is long drawn out, the process is close to irreversible. Government organisations tend not to feel the same existential threat (which is not to say they are immune to it, or indeed necessarily less vulnerable to it than Amazon realistically is). But his basic principles – resist proxies, embrace external trends and high-velocity decision making – all seem very relevant.

Jeff Bezos – Amazon

WTF is Strategy?

Strategy can be an elusive concept, and it’s tempting to some to conclude that it doesn’t really exist.  This post, written firmly from the perspective of a an agile product owner, takes a simple but quite useful approach of positioning strategy as the layer between the vision or mission, at a greater level of abstraction, and the plan and delivery, at a lower level of abstraction. Perhaps not surprisingly, there’s a strong resonance with some of Simon Wardley’s approach too.

Vince Law – Medium

Crossing the river by feeling the stones

Strategy is not the production of documents (still less the document produced). It is an evolving response to the situation an entity finds itself in. Delivery is not a strategy, or at least not unless it is based on a high level of situational awareness. Doing what everybody else is doing, or latching on to trends or buzzwords is also not a strategy, since it is necessarily not distinctive to the entity concerned. Simon Wardley has long challenged – or rather scorned – conventional approaches to business strategy development, this video is a good introduction to his way of thinking.

Simon Wardley